The Train Is Leaving the Station

I want to dispel one myth right away, and that is, Realtors do not utter the sentence “It’s a great time to buy” 365 days a year. At least I don’t, and the reason why, is simply because I do not want to be the boy that is constantly crying wolf. When I think that there is a real opportunity to buy and my clients should take advantage of it, I want them to REALLY listen to me. If I am always trotting out the old “you really should buy now” mantra, then pretty soon, it will fall on deaf ears. This is one of those times when I am telling my clients and consumers that they should buy now and here’s why!

There are too many signs right now that buyers are ready to jump into the market and start buying now.

1.  Cash buyers are coming into the market quickly and buying big chunks of properties. According to the National Association of Realtors, 28% of all transactions last year were cash and that’s double from 14% in 2008. According to Metrolist here in Colorado, 22% of all residential transactions in 2010 were cash compared to just 12% in 2008.

2.  Yield on the 10-Year TreasuryNotes has increased substantially in the last several weeks, indicating an increase in mortgage rates. Mortgage Back Securities are telling a similar story. Rates are creeping up and staying under the radar while most people don’t even recognize that they are rising. We were hovering around the high 4’s to 5% interest rates just back in December. Now, we are at 5.25% to 5.5%. I think it’s very conceivable that we could be at 6% by the end of summer. If the interest rates get to 6% by the end of summer, that will NEGATE ANY BIG DISCOUNT YOU GOT ON THE PRICE OF THE HOME. I know we all want to wait for prices to drop further, but you need to weigh that against the interest rates if you are getting a loan.

3.  Inventory is at a high but likely to decrease. APRIL 1 STARTS THE BUYING SEASON.

4. Congress is substantially limiting Fannie and Freddie, which will likely decrease mortgage funds and increase rates.

In summary, MOST people miss the train and buy too late. I would say that 95% of people don’t get this equation correct. A great example is: “How many of you invested in the stock market at the all-time low of March 2009? Were you able to time the market?” If the answer is: “No, I did not,” don’t worry.Most people (95%) didn’t invest then, either. You need to hit it at just the right time of low price and low interest. By the time you realize that interest rates are rising and not coming down, you are too late. Like Warren Buffet and other great investors do, “buy when there is chaos.” Don’t buy when things settle down or it will be too late. “Unpredictability” in this case is a good thing, so use it to your advantage.

Dan Polimino is a Realtor with Fuller Sotheby’s International Realty. He can be reached at DPolimino@fullerproperties.com and www.coloradodreamhouse.com/denverpost

Featured Listings